Such exercises are, of course, fraught. Neverthless, your intrepid analyst chances his arm.
The following list comes from Collingwood's website.
Ratings based on revealed form and expectation ***** elite **** very good *** good ** not bad * bad or unknown or unrevealed **** Alex Fasolo *** Jordan De Goey **** Brent Macaffer **** Brodie Grundy ***** Jamie Elliott **** Tyson Goldsack ***** Adam Treloar *** Tom Langdon **** Jesse White ***** Scott Pendlebury **** Jarryd Blair * Matthew Scharenberg **** Taylor Adams *** James Aish *** Jarrod Witts **** Nathan J. Brown Leaving? *** Jonathon Marsh **** Travis Varcoe *** Levi Greenwood ***** Ben Reid Injury-prone * Tom Phillips ***** Steele Sidebottom **** Jack Crisp ***** Marley Williams * Matthew Goodyear **** Ben Sinclair * Tim Broomhead ***** Darcy Moore * Jackson Ramsay ***** Travis Cloke ??? Leaving? * Rupert Wills **** Alan Toovey * Brayden Sier ***** Dane Swan Retired *** Brayden Maynard ***** Jeremy Howe ** Ben Crocker *** Josh Smith *** Adam Oxley ** Corey Gault **** Jack Frost Flashes of brilliance ** Mason Cox Might have been sussed by opponents
Of those who are likely to be there in 2017, ...
***** elite -------------------------------- ***** Jamie Elliott ***** Adam Treloar ***** Scott Pendlebury ***** Ben Reid Injury-prone ***** Steele Sidebottom ***** Marley Williams ***** Darcy Moore ***** Jeremy Howe **** very good -------------------------------- **** Alex Fasolo **** Brent Macaffer **** Brodie Grundy **** Tyson Goldsack **** Jesse White **** Jarryd Blair **** Taylor Adams **** Nathan J. Brown Leaving? **** Travis Varcoe **** Jack Crisp **** Ben Sinclair **** Alan Toovey **** Jack Frost Flashes of brilliance
That's 20-21 players in the top two tiers. That could be enough to
build a team around.
We will of course get replacements for those who are leaving.
So what was our last Premiership team like by comparison?
Bear in mind that 6 years on I might have a distorted memory of their
rating in 2010. Here we go for what it's worth.
**** Nick Maxwell (despite what his critics say, Collingwood
supporters rate him highly)
*** Nathan Brown
**** Alan Toovey
**** Harry O'Brien
**** Ben Reid
**** Heath Shaw
*** Sharrod Wellingham
***** Dane Swan
*** Ben Johnson
***** Alan Didak
***** Travis Cloke
**** Luke Ball
*** Dayne Beams
*** Chris Dawes
**** Steele Sidebottom
**** Darren Jolly
***** Scott Pendlebury
***** Dale Thomas
*** Jarryd Blair
**** Brent Macaffer
**** Tyson Goldsack
**** Leigh Brown
In summary:
2010 2017 ***** 5 8 **** 11 13 *** 6 9
At first sight, it seems that the 2017 team is better than the
premiership team. I think that's a bit distorted. The premiership team
is rated on my memory of their standing in 2010. The 2017 team is
rated on promise. I'm not sure that Darcy Moore is elite yet.
Nevertheless, the Collingwood hierarchy have put together a promising
bunch. As I have said previously, there's an awful lot that has to go
right to win a premiership. (Look at Hawthorn this year.)
The wrap
For 2017, I would like to start with a team that plays watchable footy
most of the time. The rest might take care of itself. 2017 probably
won't be our year. We might make finals. And 2018 is too far away to
contemplate.
Sources, Notes, Footnotes, References
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/season/players/seniors
Since I wrote this back in September 2016 (I must have had plenty of time on my hands), a few things have changed. Two nights ago, I watched the first preseason game. The team now looks very different from the team I used as the basis of this analysis. I've also watched most of the 2011 season.
ReplyDeleteIt's clear to me that I under-valued the 2011 players. Individually, many look better than my rankings. But what really stands out is the synergy. In footy parlance, you would say they really gel. As a result, the 2011 team kept finding ways to win (except against Geelong). And it played delightful, entertaining footy.
Although the 2011 team tailed off dramatically in the last 5 weeks of that year, eventually losing the grand final, I believe very few teams get to the last game of the year without synergy.