Arguably I should be looking to the end of round 10 or waiting until the end of round 13 since the rounds in between are compromised by byes. But, since Collingwood has the bye this weekend, it's the most suitable for one who has other entries in his dance card besides writing.
Overview
I think there is a natural cluster of the bottom 5. Given the way they are tracking, you might want to add Essendon and make a bottom 6. This group divides into roughly two categories: emerging teams St Kilda and Melbourne, possibly Brisbane; and teams going nowhere or backwards, in particular, for different reasons, Carlton and Gold Coast. These last two look like fighting for the wooden spoon. Gold Coast has been ravaged by injuries. Carlton's malaise is less obvious. But who cares? It's Carlton. The Footy Bogan will be barracking for Carlton to come last. Perhaps Essendon's problems are sui generis, though there seems to be a similarity to Carlton. I do not expect any of these teams to play finals.
At the end of round 10 there were four teams with a 5-5 record. From the bottom: North Melbourne, Bulldogs, Geelong, Port Adelaide. On their day, these teams can beat just about anyone, but clearly their days don't come all that often. Geelong has beaten not much (North and Collingwood). Port has beaten North, Hawthorn, Adelaide and the Bulldogs; and lost to the three top teams and Richmond, so they probably have more upside than the others. The Bulldogs have beaten WC, Richmond, Adelaide, GWS and Sydney; lost to Hawthorn, Freo and PA - but also, tellingly to St Kilda and Melbourne. Perhaps the Bulldogs have more reason for optimism even than PA - if they can get more consistency. They may have significant injuries (I don't know). North have beaten Geelong, Richmond and WC. They have not played any of the bottom five, so they still might make the finals.
The top eight
The rest of the teams are in the eight (as at the end of round 10). This analysis looks at each team in ascending ladder position.
Richmond (6-4) is on a 4-game winning streak. Most significantly, they have shown the rest of the teams how to beat Freo. Whether that demonstration can be converted to wins is yet to be seen. When they get it together (Freo Q1, Collingwood Q2) they are effortlessly awesome - and really watchable. They play an exuberant, exciting brand of football which the Bogan would like to see rewarded.
I haven't seen any Adelaide (6-4) games except the horrible round 2 match against us. I believe that was more about how terrible we were than any reflection on Adelaide. Four of their wins have come against teams from the bottom 5; their only significant scalp was a 77-point thrashing of North in round 1. Their next five weeks could get ugly; or it could be their making.
Hawthorn (6-4) is probably the sleeping giant. Most pundits rank them up with Freo and Sydney; the rest of the competition playing for the last top-four spot. However, 3 of their wins were against bottom-5 sides; they lost to Sydney have yet to play Freo and WC; and they managed to lose to Essendon. They have been ravaged with injuries; but they are expecting many players back after the bye. Their wins have been huge; their losses total 24 points. My sense is that they are nowhere near their strength of last year. They are vulnerable, but any team that takes them lightly will get thrashed. The rest of us can only hope that they are in decline.
GWS (7-3) might be the great pretenders. Based on their performance against us last week, and the train-wreck of injuries they sustained, they could be on a steady descent down the ladder. Five of their wins are from the bottom group. They've beaten Hawthorn and Adelaide.
Collingwood's (7-3) position is even more perilous than that of GWS: we've beaten the bottom 7 teams; lost to Adelaide, Geelong and Richmond. An optimist would discard Adelaide as an outlier and suggest that the Richmond loss was close enough (5 points) that we needed to do very little to win it. That still leaves a 41-point loss to Geelong. I think we are in the same category as Adelaide: the next five weeks could get ugly; or ... The positive for us is that there are a number of players coming back from injury. If you had your choices, you'd probably prefer to have injuries at the start of the season (especially when you played the weaker teams) than a repeat of last year.
West Coast (7-3) have been surprisingly awesome. It's all very well that they thrashed Carlton - who hasn't? - but to survive the loss of their key defenders is something else. They've lost to Freo - who hasn't? - Bulldogs and North in round 10. But for the North loss, they would be second on the ladder - which really matters when Sydney is second. However four of their wins were against bottom-5 sides. So far, no revealed form against Sydney or Hawthorn (both of whom they play only once).
Last year's other grand finalist, Sydney (8-2), are on a 5-game winning streak (6 when r11 is included) which makes them the form side of the competition. Wins include 4 bottom-6 sides, Hawthorn (whom they play again in the run home) and GWS.
Finally, Fremantle (9-1) looks like the side to beat in 2015. Until Richmond showed the way, they were looking invulnerable. Have played only 2 of the 6 weak teams, so you can pencil in another 4 wins. They've beaten Sydney, but have yet to play Hawthorn whom they meet only once.
The wrap
I think Freo will be the minor premier. Except for some doubts over whom they've played, Sydney and West Coast look likely to make the top 4; and no one is prepared to write off Hawthorn. That makes 5-8 less useful since at least three of the last 4 finals before the Grand Final will be played interstate.
Picking 5-8 is much more difficult, but if pushed I'd guess Richmond (possibly a top-4 candidate), Port Adelaide, Bulldogs, Adelaide.
And now for the biggie. There are far too many questions about Collingwood. On the bright side, they've vastly exceeded my expectations so far. On the other hand, the challenges come immediately after the bye. Ask me again in six weeks.
Stevo's mid-season summation
ReplyDeleteI await the return of Sinclair on the small goal kicker(s) so Marley Williams can become a midfielder. He, Elliot, Varcoe and Crisp know how to kick the ball to our advantage. Pendles has been an inspiration and a great teacher in this regard.
Of course, Swanny, the great champ, is un-teachable in terms of kicking. He has resorted to just knocking the ball out of the scrum, or to an extremely fast handball. So much so, that he has to point this out to the umpires on the scoreboard replay, when the umpires miss his quick hands. He seems to be in his latter days.
Ball has given birth to Adams, who similarly, courageously, is unafraid of the contest.
I have long wished for Sidebottom to be given a good talking to. His team-mates are fearful when he's anywhere near the ball. The result of his interactions on the field invariably lead to a turnover, or the possibility of life-threatening injury. Examples include: the slap-it-on-the-boot kick to space; the looping, slow-motion handball; and the characteristic stopping dead in his tracks with the ball as if playing for the siren or the safety of the boundary line. All of this usually makes it difficult for team-mates to know what he is about to do, and therefore they don't know how to time their run to create the next contest. It looks like he wishes he were Pendlebury and hopes the game will slow down and adjust to him. Unfortunately, there is only one Pendles. (Even his brother who used to play for the seconds would agree.) Team play means being predictable to your team-mates, and unpredictable to your opposition. He has turned this truism on its head. He runs and runs, but I wish he could find a team mate.
The Pies makes up for their lack of skills, and lack of experience with a great deal of effort and energy. Missing 'easy' shots at goal interferes with forward momentum and drains emotional reserves. Against the good sides every interaction counts. The Pies waste a lot of effort and that's pity. But when Clokey clunks a few, and the boys kick sausage rolls, what joys abound ...
It looks like the Pies will end up somewhere between 7th and 13th depending on injuries and form. Of course, it's all good experience for the younger players. Every game is. But what happens when Cloke is/becomes unavailable? We need two new power forwards who can contest and kick straight. I see none in our own stocks or on the horizon. And we need 3 more big-bodied goers like DeGoey and Crisp, who can win midfield contested clearances – the key to having a winning chance. (I await the Yiddish solicitors: Scharenberg, Greenwood and Freeman.)
There seem to be two groupings this year. There are 7 really good sides: Hawthorn, Swans, Freo, West Coast, Adelaide, Port Adelaide, Geelong. The rest can beat each other on their day, or depending on injuries, the wind, umpiring decisions or the sheer dumb luck of the bounce. The Pies are in the middle of this second grouping. In the first half of the year, I thought the Pies looked like, played like, and had the cattle and game plan of a team hovering around 11 - 12. Looks like we miss the finals this year, with only 3 more wins this season: exactly the same as last year. It was always going to be a tough draw this year. As usual, the AFL (in collusion with TV stations) have manipulated the fixture, in order to make sure that higher-ranked teams play each other twice, whilst lower-ranked teams play lower ranked teams twice. It's another attempt at equalization or the seedings system in tennis tournaments. It also means that lower-ranked teams at the half way mark have a few runs on the board (oops, wrong game) and don't try to tank too early. At least Bucks has the boys and the other coaches listening to him. Unlike ‘our’ politicians, he is far-sighted and knows he has a long secure tenure.