Sunday 21 June 2015

2015 Mid-season Review - Players

The Footy Bogan rates Collingwood players over the first 11 rounds of 2015.


In my previous post I assessed all the teams. This post deals with individual Collingwood players. For various reasons, this is already a huge post. With luck, I'll be able to get the next post out before Thursday's game. I propose to discuss our team. Maybe I'm dreamin'.

Preamble


No two people see the same game. Everyone watches from a slightly different perspective. Invariably what one sees is informed by one's history, prejudices, preferences, personality, interests and a host of other parameters. Listen to the crowd as the supporters of one team scream "ball" at the same time as the supporters of the opposition are screaming "man" just as vehemently and with the same amount of conviction. There is no better example than a football crowd of a "postmodern-ironist view, which sees truth as socially constructed".1

A further problem for the Footy Bogan is that his memory is not always reliable. His impressions are often not supported by the facts (as recourse to a replay will often reveal).

On the other hand, he's been to every game played in Melbourne this year (though he left the Adelaide game at half time) and watched all games at least twice, once live (even if on TV) and once in replay.

Finally, I have tried to give each player a mark out of 10. In my idiosyncratic way, I choose to mark players against what I consider to be their potential at the moment. So players who are doing everything I could imagine them capable of at the moment get 10/10 even though I might also expect them to get better. If a player has a long-term record, then I'm also measuring that player's performance in games played this year (to the extent that I've noticed) against the best this player has produced in the past.

So what follows is the best I can do with the feeble tools at my disposal. I do not expect others to agree; far from it, I expect some violent disagreement. I have recent examples of this. Nevertheless, I submit what follows with the best intentions.

In the stats below, I have tended to round averages to whole numbers.

You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin'


Alex Fasolo burst onto the Collingwood scene (2011? 2012?) with three noticeable qualities: he was an impressive overhead mark for his height; his kicking for goal was long and accurate; and it was clear that he really loved his footy. He demanded to be noticed and he dared the coaches to drop him.

This year his enjoyment and love of the game are not evident; his game smacks of someone desperate to retain his position in the side; his other qualities have slipped.

Earlier in the year he was tried in defence. Under the circumstances, his stats are pretty good. His 6 games this year have yielded a disposal average of 13. In front of goal, 9.4 is a good return.

And despite that, I feel his star has dimmed. Maybe he is diminished when compared with Elliott. I could be wrong.

7/10

Rocket Man


In the absence of Andy "Fire" Krakouer, Jamie Elliott provides the excitement at Collingwood. Like Fasolo, he is a spectacular mark, an accurate goal-kicker and averages just over 13 disposals per game. Unlike Fasolo, I don't think I've ever seen him smile. He is fierce when tackling, roams far and wide and is probably Collingwood's most effective contributor, even MVP.

10/10

River Deep - Mountain High


When Cloke is strutting his stuff, as he has the last two games, he is awesome, and a delight to watch. His first mark against the Demons (a one-hander) had us out of our seats. 12.2 across the two games is the sort of return that justifies his high price tag. Juxtaposed to his 31.17 for the year, two thoughts come to mind. His last two games have been for more productive than his first 9. But more importantly, 31.17 seems surprisingly accurate for Cloke. And it is. Last year (not a good one) he went 39.30. Even in his almost-Coleman-winning year, 2013, he kicked 68.51; in 2011, 69.48. The assessment that he is about 50% from anywhere is not outrageous. Nevertheless, his substantially improved accuracy this year has largely gone unnoticed - at least by this observer.

In 2013 he took 190 marks from 22 games. At 77 this year, he'll be struggling to match that. However, he seems to be kicking more snaps this year.

When things are not going his way - which may not be all his fault; sometimes delivery into F50 has been poor - he is hard to watch. He has himself said that he needs to get off to a good start.

For all his statistical improvement, we still find it hard to watch as he lines up to take a shot.

8.5/10

Swanee


To my surprise, Dane Swan is leading the team in disposals (319 at an average of 29 per game to Pendlebury's 307). His long term average is 27. Even at this rate, he looks like falling substantially short of his halcyon (and All-Australian) years (2009-2013).

Interestingly (and quite irrelevant to this analysis), his figures for 2010 are generally quite a bit better than those of his Brownlow year (2011).

I can find no figures for effectiveness. The nearest seems to be clangers, which for Swan are tracking quite high this year. This concords with my perception that his disposals have been very ordinary this year. Nevertheless, he has kicked as many goals in 11 games this year as he did in 17 last year. Further, he is one of the fastest players to get boot to ball in congested situations. If he comes good, look out.

7/10

Time Is on My Side


Pendlebury's figures are near to Swan's. He still has his hypnotic influence that causes everyone in his vicinity to slow down, giving him time to make his next move. He seems to be carrying an injury (ankle?) and so is less mobile than usual, not that you'd notice.

His other part-time magic is to deliver the ball to an isolated player (or two) in an otherwise crowded forward line.

He has a special understanding with Swan and when the two of them are involved, it's like a well-oiled machine. In this punter's opinion, his attempts to move the ball can often be far too slick for his less tuned-in team mates.

9/10

You Are So Beautiful


To my mind no one has over-achieved more than Jack Crisp. In almost every statistical category he outperforms Taylor Adams, who is in his second year at the Pies. He is extremely effective and rarely puts a foot wrong.

In many statistical categories his 11 games for Collingwood outperform his 18 games over 3 years for Brisbane. For example, at Brisbane he averaged 13 disposals per game, this year nearly 27.

He really is the pick of recent recruits.

10/10

How Can I Be Sure?


I really want to believe that the Collingwood brains trust did the right thing in recruiting Taylor Adams, but I find myself often let down. His figures for last year look worse than his figures at GWS. Maybe he's been injured a lot.

For me, his biggest sin (along with Langdon) is his alarming propensity to kick into his opponents. I don't mean his opponents are performing death-defying smothers. Often his opponent has fallen asleep and is woken by a ball clanging into his head, back or aimlessly waving arms.

He always looks like he's trying hard. Maybe that's a bit of a problem in itself. The really good players seem to do lots of good things effortlessly.

The jury is still out.

8/10

I Don't Care


Tom Langdon, on the other hand, never looks like he's trying. He looks stoned or casual or as if he doesn't care much. Still, more than Adams, he manages to kick (and handball) into his opponents. I always want to look away when he takes possession.

He reads the ball in the air superbly, is very good overhead and must have some impressive numbers for intercept marks. (I haven't been able to find a source for that metric.) However, his nett contribution is substantially diminished because he turns the ball over so often. In the first half of the North Melbourne game, the ferals around me were baying for his blood. "Get off, Langdon," they shrieked hysterically.

He's also shown a bit of a mongrel streak as if he resents being beaten and doesn't mind a bit of thuggery in retaliation. Unfortunately, that usually costs 50 metres - and more outrage from the ferals.

7/10

Getting Better


Marley Williams just keeps getting better. He's a defender with respectable figures for a midfielder. He's rarely beaten. Importantly, he can play on quick, small forwards. He's like a natural successor to Benny Johnson but with more talent and about the same amount of mongrel.

I'm always comfortable when the ball is in his hands.

9/10

It Took Me By Surprise


Adam Oxley's performance against the Demons took me by surprise. Not that he hadn't already been noticed, but that day was something special. Until then he'd been a quiet achiever. It seems he missed 2014. He must have been injured because we were reduced to playing kids from the local high school. They wouldn't have chosen them over Oxley.

8/10

Wait


Travis Varcoe came to the club with a track record: he was quick off half back and could kick goals. He'd played 138 games over 8 years with Geelong. He's 27. Well, during his first 9 games for Collingwood, you'd never know it. He was tentative, looked lost and showed no enthusiasm for the contest. Often he looked lazy and uninterested. We've had a long wait, but in the last couple of games, he seems to have clicked into place. The question is, which is the real Travis Varcoe?

5/10

Slipping Away


In his first year for Collingwood 2010, Jarryd Blair played 12 games. His stats for that year are very similar to his stats for 10 games this year. Yet, lately

...  I've been watching you
        Watching everything you do
        And I just can't help feeling 
        ...
        ... you slipping away

I might be wrong. Blair has equal highest tackle count for Collingwood for the year (56) with Crisp - but Crisp has played one more game.

6/10

Up and Down


In his fourth year of senior football at Collingwood, Paul Seedsman has been up and down. His best is very good. His forte is rebounding off half back, bouncing along the wing, kicking long I50 or kicking goals from around 50. Lately, it seems to me, his disposals have been dodgy. A superficial examination of his stats suggests he was as good or better in 2013. I would have expected improvement.

6/10

Still Young


In his favour, Brodie Grundy is still young, especially for a ruckman. He was given a run late in 2013 (when Collingwood had given up on the year and Jolly(?)) and was very impressive. Last year, he played 15 games; I think he found the extra load heavy going. At times he was paired with Witts with mixed results. This year his stats are up across the board.

Although he struggles at centre bounces against quality ruckmen, he has shown the ability to leap quite high. He needs to time his leap since he has often come back to earth just as the ball is being met by the opposition ruckman. he also tends to try to tap the ball straight down. I think he needs to start by working on his timing and simply belting the ball as far as he can. Once he has perfected that, he can try some of NicNat's moves, palming the ball to a Priddis at high speed.

Nevertheless, against the competition's best ruckmen, his mobility around the ground can shift the competitive balance nearer to him. He is a strong mark.

8/10

The Best Is Yet to Come


Jarrod Witts has played just 5 games this year. Since the arrival of Grundy, he has played second fiddle in the ruck. In classical ruckman tradition, he has taken time to mature. With the injury to Grundy, he grabbed his opportunity with both hands. I thought his performance against one of the competition's premier ruckmen, Mumford, in the the GWS game was awesome. Still it was only one game.

He's shown glimpses in the past - but only that. Despite his height and weight, he seems to be too easily moved away from the ball. He has spilt marks that I thought he should have taken.

I'm hoping that for Witts the best is yet to come.

7/10

Takin' Care of Business


Tyson Goldsack is approaching veteran status, yet he has only 135 games over 9 years. I guess he's had injury problems. Now occupying a permanent spot in defence, it's hard to recall that he kicked 24.19 in 2012. As a defender, he could be seen as an inheritor of Maxwell's legacy. However, he has also been assigned kick-in duties, a role for which he seems eminently suitable. I'm much happier with his kicking in than, say, Langdon's (but, then, I think almost anyone is preferable to Langdon).

As the defence general (if that is his role), he oversees a well coordinated team within a team.

8/10

The Biggest Disappointment


Six years at Sydney, in his second year at Collingwood, Jesse White has largely disappointed. Occasionally he shows glimpses of what he could be. He's supposed to help Cloke in the forward line and take a bit of the ruck load. He doesn't get many possessions; his tackle count is not great.

On the brighter side, with 18 goals, he's tracking to kick more goals this year than his best year at Sydney, 2010, 22. Even then, he can be erratic with 4 goals against GC and 3 against GWS his best outings this year. His goal-assist figures are not impressive.

Can he repeat his good performances against good teams? How does one rate him as a contributor?

4/10

I'm Still Standing



Still only 24, Steele Sidebottom is one of several premiership players in the team. In our heyday, when I regarded Beams as a mini-Swan, I saw Sidebottom as a mini-Pendlebury. The four of them made up a formidable midfield contingent. Out with a broken thumb sustained in the first match of the year, he has managed just 5 games so far this year, yet has a disposal average of 25. A clever ball-winner, goal-contributor and tackler, his stats this year are understandably down. He is balanced and effective on both sides of his body.

8/10

Indestructible


After an injury-ravaged 2014, Nathan Brown has played all 11 games this year. He missed all of 2011 with two knee injuries, and most of 2014 with a shoulder. That he's able to get back on the ground is little short of a miracle. He is an effective defender, usually taking the best forward.

9/10

Never Say Die


Alan Toovey is another player who is no stranger to injury, missing most of 2013 with a knee. He's a solid rebounding defender who is often expected to punch out of his weight division. Against North, he was asked to mind Jarrad Waite. He just gets on with the job and is rarely beaten.

8/10

Promising


With only 8 games each last year and this, we've not seen much of Tim Broomhead. Nevertheless he has certainly shown something in patches. I think he's promising, but far from established.

6/10

I'm So Excited


Jackson Ramsay has only played 5 games this year for a career total of 7, but I'm so excited by what I've seen so far.

7/10

Amazing


The only one to play all 22 games last year, Jack Frost has continued in the same vein playing all 11 this year. And he's still a rookie! He is a very effective defender, almost invariably able to judge when to leave his opponent (except against GWS) to help out another defender. Despite his youth, he has the size to edge his opponents under or away from the mark without infringing. For a big man, he is frighteningly quick.

9/10

Et Cetera


That leaves a handful of players who have not managed many games this year. Jordan de Goey's 6 games have shown us a potential midfielder of the future. The rest have been in and out. They may yet accumulate a record worth evaluating.

The wrap


I don't think I can improve on my wrap of the GWS game.



Sources, Notes, Footnotes, References


[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Postmodernism
http://afltables.com/afl/stats/2015.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/player-profile/nathan-j-brown

In case you missed it, the headings were the names of songs. Here are some details. I've tried real hard to get these right. If I've failed, I'm sorry.

Title Writer(s) Performer(s)
You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin' Phil Spector, Barry Mann, Cynthia Weil The Righteous Brothers
Rocket Man Elton John and Bernie Taupin Elton John
River Deep - Mountain High Phil Spector, Jeff Barry, and Ellie Greenwich Ike & Tina Turner
Swanee (1919) George Gershwin (music) and Irving Caesar (lyrics) Al Jolson
Time Is on My Side Norman Meade, Jimmy Norman The Rolling Stones
You Are So Beautiful Billy Preston and Bruce Fisher Joe Cocker
How Can I Be Sure Felix Cavaliere and Eddie Brigati The Young Rascals
I Don't Care Jocke Åhlund, Cheryl Cole, Bonnie McKee, John Newman Cheryl
Getting Better Lennon-McCartney The Beatles
It Took Me By Surprise Maria Mena and Martin Sjølie Maria Mena
Wait Lennon-McCartney The Beatles
Slipping Away Max Merritt Max Merritt and The Meteors
Up and Down ??? Pretty Ricky
Still Young Felix Riebl? The Cat Empire
The Best Is Yet to Come Carolyn Leigh, Cy Coleman Frank Sinatra
Takin' Care of Business Randy Bachman Bachman-Turner Overdrive
The Biggest Disappointment Joy McKean Slim Dusty
I'm Still Standing Elton John (music), Bernie Taupin (lyrics) Elton John
Indestructible Disturbed Disturbed
Never Say Die! Ozzy Osbourne, Tony Iommi, Geezer Butler, Bill Ward Black Sabbath
Promising Jeff Tweedy Wilco?
I'm So Excited Trevor Lawrence, Anita Pointer, June Pointer, Ruth Pointer The Pointer Sisters
Amazing Steven Tyler and Richie Supa Aerosmith
Et Cetera Niall Mooney, Daniele Moretti, Jonas Gladnikoff, Christina Schilling Sinéad Mulvey and Black Daisy

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