Danger Game

The Footy Bogan reckons today's game could be interesting.

Conventional wisdom

The Footy Bogan reckons that conventional wisdom runs through footy conversations like an epidemic. Somebody comes up with a game plan that works wonders at a particular ground on a particular day against a particular opposition, and the following week we see articles in the paper on the subject. Before long, coaches buy into the premise and so the contagion spreads.

The conventional wisdom of this week is what to do about Ablett? It's everywhere. Today I Google for "Ablett" for the past week and get 10,700 hits. High on the list are these gems:

Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley targets Gary Ablett and Gold Coast's star midfield
The Age - 3 days ago

Don't expect Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley to make the same mistake he did last year - not tagging Gold Coast superstar Gary Ablett.


Gary Ablett ready for Magpies' tagger
The Australian - 2 days ago

Michael Voss says Gold Coast superstar Gary Ablett is almost untaggable, but Collingwood must still must
Herald Sun - 2 days ago

Midweek I read the first article in my home-delivered copy of The Age. Later, Nathan Buckley told me much the same.

Analysis

Let's start with the ex-coach's inanity and see if that explains why he's an ex-coach.

AFL great Michael Voss says Gold Coast captain Gary Ablett is almost untaggable but Collingwood has no choice but to shadow the Suns star on Saturday night.

Greg Davis, The Courier-Mail, July 03, 2014

Does he actual listen to what he says?

Ablett has averaged 46 disposals in his past three games against the Magpies, forcing Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley to admit he made a mistake by not putting a tagger on the dual Brownlow Medallist.

Greg Davis, The Courier-Mail, July 03, 2014

Let's look at the past 3 games.

                        Collingwood     Gold Coast      Margin
Round: 18 2011          19.15.129       11.9.75         +54
Round: 10 2012          23.11.149       7.10.52         +97
Round: 17 2013          11.12.78        13.7.85         -7

So while "Ablett has averaged 46 disposals in his past three games against the Magpies", Collingwood has won by an average 48 points. Can you see a correlation? It can't be accidental that 46 and 48 are so close. It looks an awful lot like the more possessions that Ablett gets, the bigger the margin to Collingwood. Tag him?! We ought to be kicking to him.

A triple premiership captain, Brownlow medallist and AFL Hall of Fame member, Voss played and coached against Ablett and said it was all about limiting the damage.

"You'll never completely shut Gary down. He has proven over a long period of time that he will always get plenty of the ball no matter what you do," Fox Footy analyst Voss said.

Greg Davis, The Courier-Mail, July 03, 2014

Does Voss understand what winning a game of football means? Nowhere in the results of a match do they list how many possessions a player had. In the report, yes; in the results, no. Nobody ever won by 17 disposals or possessions - or supercoach points; they win by points - the ones on the scoreboard. Those figures in my table above, under the heading Margin are the ones that matter. 97 points! Now that's a "beautiful set of numbers" (Keating).

I don't see how the conclusion "forcing Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley to admit he made a mistake" not tagging Ablett can be drawn from the number of Ablett's possession. If I were coach, and the opposition coach offered me a deal in which I agreed not to put an opponent on one of his players, and he in return offered to lose each game, I'd take it in a heartbeat.

Form

Gold Coast have done very well this year. They sit 2 ladder positions and one game below us. And percentage. They've had significant wins (North by 43, Geelong by 40) and some dramatic losses (Hawthorn 99 and 53, the latter last week, Freo 48, Adel 32, Syd 35). And Ablett has played in most if not all these games. I say again, Ablett is a distraction. He's one player. We're pitting our team against their team.

If the Suns are playing better this year, a cool analysis suggests that it is players other than Ablett who are responsible - through their improvement.

They beat us last year (or, we beat ourselves last year). Collingwood is limping along. Since its shellacking by Fremantle in round 1, the Pies have managed to keep their losses to manageable proportions. Sadly, the same can be said about their wins with the exception of the win over cellar dwellers, St Kilda (86 points).

Last night, Mark suggested that we hadn't played well all year. I mentioned Essendon - with the rider: after 5 minutes into Q2.

Here are the headlines from the Bogan's Notes this year:

The Footy Bogan tosses up between switching teams or watching cricket.
... Collingwood grinds out a hard-fought win.
The Footy Bogan watches Collingwood lose the battle of the cliches.
The Pies score an easy win over the Tiges.
The Footy Bogan watches the Pies win a game of mild surprises.
The Footy Bogan watches an Anzac Day game for the ages.
The Pies win an unattractive game. ... a sour taste in our mouths.
The Pies come thudding back to earth with a peculiarly inept display.
The Footy Bogan gets another roller-coaster ride.
You'd say it was a pretty good game - if you were at your local
suburban ground.
The Pies win an unattractive, low-scoring game.
The Pies lose a game they were expected to win.
The wheels fall off.
... the Pies limped home to an unconvincing, dreary win.

Not particularly heartening.

Of all these, only the Anzac Day game sounds like a must-see. Perhaps we played well against Richmond. Maybe the North game's surprises were pleasant. Actually, the Pies against the Bulldogs was a great game - with a disappointing result.

If we could just string together a few matches with the sort of play that resulted in a goal to Beams from Pendlebury's kick-in last week - not just a single play, but a whole match - in other words, if we could just play to our potential, I think we could play enjoyable watchable - dare I say winning? - football.

Sadly, I think we are trying to cover too many injuries with too many newbies.

If you're so smart, why did we lose last year?

I'm glad you asked. In a brilliant analysis last year, the Footy Bogan deconstructed the loss. He concluded that "Gary Ablett was not the tiniest bit relevant". In his comment, the estimable MR performed a similar analysis. In it, he went through five lengthy paragraphs without once mentioning Ablett. Largely, he seemed to agree with the Footy Bogan. In para 6, MR notes how bulky Ablett, inter alia, is.

Finally in para 7, in a non sequitur of breathtaking proportions, he states that he "can't agree with" the Bogan about Ablett - thus compromising an otherwise intelligent analysis.

The Footy Bogan reckons he said it all in last year's article; he won't repeat himself today - well, not any more than he has.

The Wrap

Frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn. (The second-last line of Gone with the Wind.) Tag Ablett; don't tag Ablett. I don't think it will make a scrap of difference. I think I've covered that. Voss seems to agree.

But, don't let that be the focus of today's game. If you allow that to distract you, you will almost certainly repeat the lunacy of last year.

Articles

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/collingwood-coach-nathan-buckley-targets-gary-ablett-and-gold-coasts-star-midfield-20140701-zss97.html

Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley targets Gary Ablett and Gold Coast's star midfield

Jon Pierik

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/gary-ablett-ready-for-magpies-tagger/story-fnca0u4y-1226975755890?nk=9e13ee40de2448a3df26b7d77c40feb6#mm-premium


http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/gary-ablett-ready-for-magpies-tagger/story-fnca0u4y-1226975755890?nk=9e13ee40de2448a3df26b7d77c40feb6#mm-premium

Gary Ablett ready for Magpies' tagger

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/michael-voss-says-gold-coast-superstar-gary-ablett-is-almost-untaggable-but-collingwood-must-still-try/story-fni5f7ka-1226975085074?nk=9e13ee40de2448a3df26b7d77c40feb6

Michael Voss says Gold Coast superstar Gary Ablett is almost untaggable, but Collingwood must still try

http://thefootybogan.aussieblogs.com.au/2013/07/24/notes-from-the-game-2013-round-17-gold-coast/

Notes from the game: 2013 Round 17 Gold Coast