Team Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Collingwood Magpies 1.3 2.6 6.9 8.11 59 Geelong Cats 7.1 11.4 12.8 15.10 100
The buildup
Collingwood went into this game as favourites. The morning paper had them at $1.70; by the afternoon, they had shortened to $1.50. Ah, the delights of hindsight! Perhaps that should have sounded the first warning.
At the selection table, Witts was a like-for-like replacement for Gault. Broomhead and Armstrong were brought in to cover the injured pair Seedsman and Ramsay. Perhaps that should have sounded the second warning. Our strength against Carlton had been our defence. Here we were, replacing two defenders with a forward (Broomhead) and - I don't really know what Armstrong is.
Geelong made 4 changes, one forced (Kelly). The two ins I knew were Mitch Clark and Rhys Stanley. That all suggested they would be stronger than previously.
Collingwood's form line read "won 3"; Geelong's "won 1". Collingwood was second on the ladder; Geelong 14th.
Hindsight - again
But when these stats were unpacked, a slightly different picture emerged. Geelong had lost to reigning premiers Hawthorn and undefeated ladder leaders Fremantle (and North Melbourne). They'd had unconvincing wins over GC and Richmond.
Collingwood had defeated cellar dwellers Brisbane, lost to Adelaide and then beaten St Kilda, Essendon and Carlton. St Kilda and Carlton were trivial scalps. On the one hand, the win against Essendon was significant because we went in unfancied and they'd previously beaten Hawthorn. Some of that significance was diluted when Essendon managed a bare 2-point win over St Kilda when the Saints failed to convert two shots in the dying minutes.
Were we really as good as the odds suggested?
The game
Eight minutes in and we were shell-shocked. Geelong had score 4 goals to a behind. But it was more the way the Pies were playing that was unsettling. Or, more to the point, not playing. I observed that Geelong were scoring at a goal every two minutes; at this rate they would have over 10 goals by quarter time.
Around the 18-minute mark, the depth of my despair was best exemplified by my taking heart from the fact that we had slowed them down to a goal every three minutes! Well that's all right then.
By half time, we were in a significantly inferior position to Carlton last week.
So, there's compelling evidence that our defence did not reach the heights of last week. Playing against more than witches hats, I thought we failed to maintain our structures. Time and again, as I looked around the field, it appeared that everywhere there were one-on-one pairings - and two Geelong players on their own. I would have sworn that they had 20 players on the field.
Nonetheless, we were noticeably less bad in the second quarter compared to the first. This was when our offence failed to rise to the occasion. After scraping and clawing their way to a mark inside 50, the players would groan as one forward after another failed to convert. The morale seeped out like air from my bike's back tube. We kicked 4 goals to 1 in the third quarter but squandered opportunities not just from shots but on the way forward as well. For a while there was a glimmer of hope - soon dashed.
Collingwood kicked the first of the last quarter in 30 seconds, bringing the margin under 30 points, still daunting, but maybe with momentum, having kicked 6 of the last 7 goals. Geelong had shown signs of nervousness in the third quarter. Hope lived. Five minutes later, Cloke lined up for goal. The Cats had scored a single goal since half time. Cloke missed. Nothing happened on the scoreboard for the next nine minutes. That in itself was a small victory for the Cats; they merely had to hang on to win. About half way through the last quarter, Jesse White kicked a goal, reducing the margin to 23 points.
Some supporters dared to hope, but Collingwood did not look convincing. They were grafting goals, not storming home. Collingwood did not record another goal; Geelong kicked 3 in about 3 minutes.
Lest we get delusions of adequacy, Geelong kicked 8.9 after quarter time, approximately Collingwood's score for the entire match.
The play
Perhaps a more interventionist coach might have sent 3 or 4 players into the backline after Geelong first 4 goals - just to stem the bleeding.
With about 12 minutes on the clock in the first quarter, after Geelong's fifth goal, Witts won himself a free at the centre bounce. With no one on the mark, he took off and landed a perfect pass on Blair's chest 40 out. Blair, normally an accurate kick for goal (4.0 so far this year), missed. In itself, it was not make-or-break. But it was a much-needed goal. Over recent years I have lamented Collingwood's inability to halt opposition run-ons. It was happening again. Geelong went on to kick 7 unanswered goals.
Collingwood players did not appear to be switched on. Time and again, Geelong players were allowed to run away from their opponents. Not one Collingwood tackle stuck. At best a Collingwood player simply turned his opponent to face the direction that advantaged Geelong on the release. Collingwood's tackles were completely ineffective. The effect on team mates would have been debilitating. First it put pressure further into the defence. Second, team mates might have expected to run forward in anticipation of an advantage - only to find they'd wrong-footed themselves.
In defence, Langdon, another serial offender, kicked into an opponent who nearly kicked a goal in his follow-up.
The Pies were sluggish going forward giving the Cats plenty of opportunity to set up defensively. The Cats were exactly the opposite, moving the ball swiftly to score goal after goal.
The Pies were doing the one-percenters - but not in the good way. They were shaving 1% off their efforts. Jesse White ran towards a potential mark in the forward pocket (albeit not delivered all that well), but elected to slow down and let it bounce impotently. Hardly the stuff of highlight reels.
Elliott found himself near the ball, momentarily unmarked, just outside 50, but his fumbles cost him any advantage. After Swan had kicked a goal (finally) Cloke had a snap from about 45 which was touched less than a metre from the goal line. With under a minute to go, White marked about 45 out. He kicked from just inside 50, but really sprayed it. It was always going to be difficult but this kick never came close. To add insult to injury and to underline the difference between +1% and -1% Geelong marked his kick near the behind post uncontested.
These are examples of the difference between times when things are going with you and times when they're not. Tonight "not" was in the ascendancy.
It was as though they collectively thought that they'd done enough last week and deserved to win tonight on the back of their previous margin.
So, can we take anything at all out of this game?
The Footy Bogan can. Last week he mentioned Grundy's "impressive leap", suggesting that Grundy needs to improve his timing. Clearly, Grundy reads these notes, because at several centre bounces his timing was superb and he emphatically out-reached his opponent.
Now he needs to be less subtle with his tap work. Most of his touches went straight down to a stationary Pie with an opponent wrapping him up immediately. Watch NicNat. He has an understanding with his rovers (usually Priddis). As NicNat flies, the rover runs to a designated position, takes possession and streams forward. These plays are such stuff as dreams are made on1.
The wrap
Listening to SEN on his drive home, the Bogan heard a commentator suggest that Geelong were probably closer to Collingwood than their respective ladder positions might suggest. Not a bad observation.
To maintain his sanity over the coming weeks, the Footy Bogan proposes to adjust his expectations, hoping to decrease the disappointment of his team's inevitable and unpredictable poor performances, a common consequence of youthful teams.
Sources, Notes, Footnotes, References
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=6009
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-match-centre/2015-afl-round-six-collingwood-v-geelong-20150508-ggxmvg.html
[1] The Tempest Act 4, scene 1
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