What to do when your team has a bye
It's the issue that will concern fans for the next three weeks. I suppose it's a bit like the predicament of the drug addict when his pusher goes on holidays: where will I get my next hit?
I've watched every game live, the Sydney game live on TV, the rest at the ground. I've watched every win on replay at least twice, the losses, not so much. I've mentioned that I watched St Kilda beat Essendon. So it shouldn't surprise anyone that I have since extended the principle of watching the enemy suffer. I've watched Melbourne beat Adelaide and am part way through watching North beat Fremantle. I intend to download Melbourne v Carlton - obviously - and then I might cast around for some other sources of joy.
Disclaimer
Having said that, I can't claim to have seen too many games this year, just 10. So I run the risk of serious egg on my face. [shrug]
I'm mainly interested in Collingwood's fortunes. Well, actually, I'm only interested in Collingwood's fortunes. So my analysis of most other teams will be sketchy at best. I'm not really interested in why Brisbane is doing badly, or whether it will improve sooner, later or never.
Discarding the easy ones
I think it's fairly easy to discard a number of teams as having little chance of making the 8 let alone top 4.
Brisbane, Melbourne, Carlton and the Doggies are serious contenders for the wooden spoon. No prizes for guessing my preferred candidate. It was nice to watch Melbourne beat Adelaide for several reasons. It never hurts to see Adelaide beaten, especially as we play them next. I don't dislike Melbourne (or the Dogs) and I'm pleased for Dawes who I still like. The Bulldogs are rebuilding; I wish them well, but I think it will be a few more years before they rise up the ladder.
GWS are still a few years off. St Kilda are about the same as the Dogs, maybe a bit behind.
On paper, you'd say that Adelaide is better than the ones already mentioned, but if you then look at whom they've beaten, and take into account that they lost to Melbourne, I'm prepared to write them off.
West Coast at 3-4 have only beaten bunnies; they've had a horror run with injuries; they lost to Carlton(!); they don't look like trending upwards any time soon.
The early coodabeens
Three clubs came into the year with huge expectations: Essendon, Richmond - and Carlton!
March 15, 2014
... Malthouse believes his Blues are almost ready to challenge the league's elite.
...
"I would say we are approaching 11 o'clock."
...
"I haven't got a crystal ball but we have a very good blend of senior players and we have a good blend in the middle."
- http://www.canberratimes.com.au/afl/afl-news/malthouse-blues-set-to-challenge-20140315-hvj2e.html
March 15, 2014
The clock is ticking and Carlton's premiership window is approaching, according to coach Mick Malthouse.
- http://www.canberratimes.com.au/breaking-news-sport/blues-on-the-rise-in-afl-coach-says-20140315-34tej.html
Well, even the Blues have given away that dream!
Carlton coach Mick Malthouse admits Blues will have to take `heavy falls' to regenerate list, following loss to Collingwood
May 03, 2014
Admitting the club was well short of the top-four teams, Malthouse vowed to address the Blues woeful inconsistencies this season by identifying the "passengers" that cost them again in the 34-point loss to Collingwood last night.
- http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/carlton-coach-mick-malthouse-admits-blues-will-have-to-take-heavy-falls-to-regenerate-list-following-loss-to-collingwood/story-fni5f5nx-1226904110526
Music to the eyes, that!
Richmond at times has played some very good footy, but I think at 2-5 they will have trouble making the 8.
Prediction for 2014
Most Essendon fans will expect the side to push for a top 4 place ...
- http://www.reddit.com/r/AFL/comments/1ur1py/2014_preview_the_essendon_bombers/
Essendon sits 3-4, has only beaten North of the teams above it and managed that satisfying loss to St Kilda. Of course they can play good footy, witness the first 35 minutes on Anzac Day, but look unlikely.
The eight
That leaves 8 teams. There's always the possibility that a Richmond or West Coast will get it together and make a late run, but I doubt it. By a strange quirk, there's a natural line under the current top 8: all those in the 8 have won more games than they've lost; all those out of the 8 are 3-4 at best.
Collingwood
I was going to do this in order from the bottom, but the objective of this post is to rate Collingwood's chances. Consequently, I don't really care where other teams finish; I'm interested in our chances of beating each of the contenders.
As we now know, Collingwood started the year horrendously. After round 1, I had completely written them off. (The last time I did that was 1990, so fingers crossed.)
Since then, the Pies have played some pretty good footy (until Carlton), losing only to Geelong. This gives me hope. However, the level at which we have played, even though we've won, has not been premiership standard; it's barely finals standard. Still, it's early days. If we can keep on improving and gelling as a team, who knows what's possible?
On revealed form, perhaps we can finish between 4 and 6.
The contenders
The question about the rest is, if things go well for us, can we beat the named team?
Starting from the bottom, North have some nice scalps (PA, Sydney, Freo) but lost to Essendon in round 1. Naturally, The Footy Bogan is casting around for reasons to pay little attention to round 1 [grin], so he looks elsewhere. They didn't look all that terrifying when we beat them and they dropped a game to Gold Coast. Nonetheless, on their day they play some pretty good footy as we discovered at the end of 2013.
However, we can beat North. That doesn't mean we will, but I wouldn't mind being opposed to them on the last day in September.
Sydney have had a poor start to the season. (I'm writing this after Sydney beat Hawthorn last night, but I'm trying to avoid taking that win into consideration.) They've beaten 3 bunnies and have already lost to us. They have yet to unleash their expensive forwards in the same match, so they do have upside. (Again, that happened last night.)
We have a good record against Sydney so I'm reasonably relaxed about matching up against them.
Fremantle have lost to Hawthorn, Sydney and North Melbourne. I watched the North game; Freo looked fragile. On paper, we ought to be able to beat Freo. We don't play them again in the regular season. If they make the finals, that might be the next chance we get to test ourselves. A bit scary.
Gold Coast are just below us on the ladder with the same 5-2 record. Their losses have been to Freo and Hawthorn, their wins similar to ours. We play them in round 16. We lost to them last year, but we were stupid that day.
I suspect that they will make the finals, but will go in without finals experience. That should count against them.
The remaining teams are all 6-1.
Geelong has beaten Hawthorn and lost to Port Adelaide. They look like a top-4 team; perhaps it's too early to tell. Our record against Geelong is generally negative with some big wins for us as comic relief. Still, if we end the year playing them, it should be a good contest.
Port Adelaide lost to North Melbourne and thrashed Geelong. Apart from that, their wins have not been significant. Nonetheless, they appear to have improved over last year, which is scary in its own right and scary for us after what they did to us last year in the regular season and in the final. Round 19 could be revealing.
Except for its fragility against Geelong, Hawthorn seems to be the standout team of the year (so far). However, they've only beaten Freo of the teams in the 8. Nevertheless, I would find it tough to watch a game against them at the end of the year. On the other hand, luck might be against them this year: they have some significant injuries (Mitchell, Lake - and last night Hodge pulled out before the start of the game and, in the vernacular, Rioli done a hammy).
Bottom line: will take some stopping to prevent them from winning back-to-back flags.
Prospects
I think we are a slim chance for this year but with exciting prospects for the next few years. We have a block of 5 "easy" games ahead of us and then Hawthorn. Of course, Collingwood has a happy knack of sometimes making the "easy" games difficult. We shall see.
It would be nice if we could string together a sequence of solid wins. I don't mean any old wins; I mean solid wins - not like the Carlton game. We need the gap between our best and our worst to narrow. And it would be really nice if we could play some attractive footy. That way the year will be very satisfying.
Go Pies.
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